Quick answer: The most common blackjack myths are wrong for simple reasons. Third base cannot "take the dealer's card" in any way that changes your odds. You are never "due" a win. Counting cards in your head is legal in Australia. Insurance on a good hand is still a bad bet. And in a no hole card game, "always assume the dealer has a 10" does not even make sense.
We collected these myths from real conversations: r/blackjack threads, Whirlpool, Tripadvisor reviews of Crown and The Star and the questions readers send us. For each one we give the myth, the reality and the number behind it. I have heard every one of these at a real table, most of them more than once.
Myths about the other players
Myth 1: "Third base took the dealer's bust card"
Reality: the next card is random to everyone. The player on third base (the last seat) is just as likely to take a card that would have helped the dealer as one that would have hurt. Over time the effects cancel out exactly.
- You remember the times their hit "cost" the table. You forget the times it saved you.
- Bad play by others does not change your expected result, only the order of the cards.
Myth 2: "A bad player ruins the shoe"
Reality: same answer. It can make a session feel unlucky, but the maths of your hand does not change. Is it annoying? Absolutely. Is it costing you money? No.
Myths about luck and streaks
Myth 3: "I have lost six in a row, I am due a win"
Reality: the next hand does not know about the last six. The dealer wins about 54% of decided hands whether you are on a losing run or not. In 4 hours at 60 hands an hour, a run of 7 losses is more likely than not (about 74%). Our blackjack odds page has the full table.
Myth 4: "Double after a loss and you cannot lose" (Martingale)
Reality: you win small amounts until one losing run hits the table limit. A A$10 start with a A$1,000 limit loses A$1,270 in one run. Try our Martingale calculator.
Myth 5: "The shuffler or the machine is rigged"
Reality: shufflers and electronic games are approved by state regulators and lab-tested, and the house edge already guarantees the casino a profit. Streaks feel rigged because they are longer than most people expect. More in electronic blackjack.
Strategy myths
Myth 6: "Always assume the dealer has a 10 in the hole"
Reality: in Australia there is no hole card at all. The dealer's second card has not been dealt yet. The saying is a rough way to remember basic strategy, but only about 4 cards in 13 are worth 10. Use the real strategy chart instead.
Myth 7: "Never hit 16, you will bust"
Reality: you bust about 62% of the time when you hit 16. But against a dealer 7 or higher, standing loses even more often, because your 16 only wins if the dealer busts (about 21% to 26% of the time). Hit 16 against 7 to ace, stand against 2 to 6.
Myth 8: "Take insurance when you have a good hand"
Reality: insurance is a separate bet on the dealer's next card. It costs about 7.4% whatever you hold. With a blackjack, taking even money costs you about 4% of your bet on average.
Myth 9: "Double 11 against anything"
Reality: not at an ENHC table. Where a dealer blackjack takes your double (Crown Perth, for example), just hit 11 against a 10 or an ace. See our no hole card guide.
Australian myths
Myth 10: "Card counting is illegal in Australia"
Reality: counting in your head is legal. Using a device to count is illegal in NSW (Casino Control Act, section 87(2)), and Crown Perth's rules ban any device that can analyse the game. Casinos can still limit your bets or refuse you service. Details in card counting in Australia.
Myth 11: "Playing on an offshore site is illegal, so I am breaking the law"
Reality: the Interactive Gambling Act targets the operators and advertisers, not the player. That does not make offshore sites safe: you have no local regulator to turn to if they refuse to pay. Our guide is online blackjack legal in Australia explains it.
Myth 12: "A 3:2 table is always the better deal"
Reality: check the rest of the rules. A 3:2 Blackjack Plus table costs several percent, while a 3:2 table where the dealer hits soft 17 costs about 0.22% more than one where the dealer stands. The payout is the first thing to check, not the only thing.
Myth 13: "Pontoon is the British game, so it must be worse"
Reality: Australian casino Pontoon is a different game, played without 10s, and in most cities its house edge is lower than blackjack. See Pontoon vs blackjack.
Myth 14: "Blackjack winnings are taxed in Australia"
Reality: for recreational players, gambling winnings are generally not taxable, and losses are not deductible. The rare exception is someone the ATO treats as running a gambling business. Our blackjack winnings tax guide covers it.
Why these myths survive
- We remember stories, not statistics. One painful hand beats a thousand forgettable ones.
- Short sessions lie. Blackjack swings far more in a night than the house edge moves in a month.
- Myths give us someone to blame. The player at third base is easier to be angry at than randomness.
We think the cure is simple: play a few thousand hands where it costs nothing, and watch the myths fall apart on their own.
Rules change from one casino to the next, and sometimes from one table to the next in the same room. Want every casino in one view? See blackjack rules at every Australian casino (one table, with sources). Or use these guides side by side before you choose a table: New to Aussie tables? Start with our Australian blackjack rules guide and keep the strategy chart open while you practise.Compare with other Aussie casinos
Casino guide What stands out Key number Crown Melbourne blackjack Rules Version 29.0: no hole card, double 9-11, Crown Blackjack hits soft 17 Pontoon 0.38% The Star Sydney blackjack Star Blackjack hits soft 17, Blackjack Challenge, NSW carded play Pontoon 0.42% Crown Sydney blackjack Traditional vs Crown Blackjack, partial doubles, no pokies A$20 legal minimum Crown Perth blackjack Soft 17 set by table layout, dealer blackjack takes all, resplit aces Pontoon 0.38% The Star Brisbane and Gold Coast Star Blackjack hits soft 17, 2026 ownership change About 0.8% SkyCity Adelaide blackjack Freebet and 6:5 Party Blackjack, SA's only casino Pontoon 0.64%
Game and tool guides What it covers Key number Blackjack Plus Dealer 22 pushes, instant pays on 21 and five cards 6.36% house edge Pontoon vs blackjack 48-card decks, player 21 always wins, house edge by city 0.34% to 0.64% Side bets in Australia Crown Pairs, Buster Blackjack, Any Pair, insurance 1.9% to 22% Minimum bets in Australia What players report at Crown and The Star, electronic tables Checked Sept 2026 Card counting in Australia What is legal, counting devices, bet limits and bans NSW s87(2) House edge calculator Enter your table's rules and see the cost per hour A$ per hour
Frequently asked questions
Does the player at third base affect my odds?
No. Their decisions change which cards come out, but not the probabilities. Over time their good and bad plays affect the table equally.
Am I due a win after a losing streak?
No. Each hand is independent. The dealer wins about 54% of decided hands no matter what happened before.
Should I always assume the dealer has a 10?
No. In Australian no hole card games the dealer's second card has not been dealt, and only about 4 cards in 13 are worth 10. Follow a basic strategy chart instead.
Is card counting illegal in Australia?
Counting in your head is legal. Using a device is not, for example under section 87(2) of the NSW Casino Control Act. Casinos can still restrict or refuse counters.
Is insurance ever a good bet?
Only for card counters when many 10s remain. For everyone else it costs about 7.4% of the insurance bet.
Bust the myths yourself
Play a long session in our free blackjack game and keep an eye on the streaks. Practice points only.