Quick answer: In no hole card blackjack the dealer busts about 28% of the time: about 42% with a 5 or 6 showing and only about 12% to 14% with an ace. If you hit a hard 12 you bust 31% of the time, on 16 about 62%. You are dealt a blackjack about once every 21 hands (4.75%).
Most blackjack odds tables online assume a US game where the dealer checks for blackjack first. Australian tables do not, so a dealer ace or 10 looks different here. We calculated the tables below for no hole card rules, both with the dealer standing on soft 17 and hitting it. Keep them next to the strategy chart: the chart tells you what to do, these tables show you why.
Dealer bust chance by upcard
| Dealer shows | Busts (stands soft 17) | Busts (hits soft 17) | Makes blackjack |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.4% | 35.7% | - |
| 3 | 37.4% | 37.7% | - |
| 4 | 39.4% | 39.7% | - |
| 5 | 41.6% | 41.8% | - |
| 6 | 42.3% | 43.9% | - |
| 7 | 26.2% | 26.2% | - |
| 8 | 24.5% | 24.5% | - |
| 9 | 22.8% | 22.8% | - |
| 10, J, Q, K | 21.2% | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Ace | 11.5% | 13.9% | 30.8% |
| All upcards | 28.2% | 28.5% | 4.7% |
Two things jump out. A 5 or 6 is the dealer's worst card, which is why you stand on 12-16 against them. And an ace is the dealer's best card: almost one time in three it turns into a blackjack, and in a no hole card game you only find out after you have acted. That is why you should not double 11 against an ace at an ENHC table like Crown Perth.
Your chance of busting if you hit
| Your hard total | Bust on the next card | Cards that bust you |
|---|---|---|
| 11 or less | 0% | None |
| 12 | 30.8% | 10, J, Q, K |
| 13 | 38.5% | 9 and up |
| 14 | 46.2% | 8 and up |
| 15 | 53.8% | 7 and up |
| 16 | 61.5% | 6 and up |
| 17 | 69.2% | 5 and up |
| 18 | 76.9% | 4 and up |
| 19 | 84.6% | 3 and up |
| 20 | 92.3% | Anything but an ace |
Soft hands (with an ace counted as 11) cannot bust on one card. Think hitting 16 against a 10 is reckless because you bust 62% of the time? Standing is worse. The dealer with a 10 finishes on 17 or better about 79% of the time, and your 16 only wins when the dealer busts. Hitting gives you a small chance to improve; standing gives you none.
What happens on an average hand
- You win about 42% to 43% of hands.
- You push about 8% to 9% of hands.
- You lose about 49% of hands.
So how can the house edge be only about 0.6% if you lose more hands than you win? Your wins are bigger: blackjacks pay 3:2, and your doubles win more often than they lose. These are typical figures for correct basic strategy. Our house edge calculator turns them into A$ per hour.
Blackjacks, pairs and aces
| Event | Chance | About once every |
|---|---|---|
| You are dealt a blackjack (6 or 8 decks) | 4.75% | 21 hands |
| You are dealt a blackjack (1 deck) | 4.83% | 21 hands |
| Your first two cards are a pair (6 decks) | 7.4% | 13.5 hands |
| Dealer makes blackjack from an ace | 30.8% | 3 aces |
| Dealer makes blackjack from a 10 | 7.7% | 13 tens |
Losing streaks: what is normal
Dealers win about 54% of the hands that do not push. The chance of losing a given run of hands in a row:
| Losses in a row | Chance for any given run |
|---|---|
| 3 | 15.4% |
| 4 | 8.3% |
| 5 | 4.4% |
| 6 | 2.4% |
| 7 | 1.3% |
| 8 | 0.7% |
Over a 4-hour session at 60 hands an hour, there is about a 74% chance of at least one run of 7 losses. In my experience this single fact explains most "the shuffler is rigged" complaints. We cover those in electronic blackjack in Australia, and why doubling after losses fails in blackjack betting systems.
How we calculated these tables
- Dealer and player bust tables: exact probabilities using an infinite-deck model with no hole card. With 6 or 8 real decks the figures move by only a few tenths of a percent.
- Blackjack and pair odds: exact counts for the number of decks stated.
- Win, push and loss rates: typical published figures for basic strategy play.
- Streaks: worked out from a 53.6% dealer share of decided hands.
We explain our wider approach on the how we test page.
Rules change from one casino to the next, and sometimes from one table to the next in the same room. Want every casino in one view? See blackjack rules at every Australian casino (one table, with sources). Or use these guides side by side before you choose a table: New to Aussie tables? Start with our Australian blackjack rules guide and keep the strategy chart open while you practise.Compare with other Aussie casinos
Casino guide What stands out Key number Crown Melbourne blackjack Rules Version 29.0: no hole card, double 9-11, Crown Blackjack hits soft 17 Pontoon 0.38% The Star Sydney blackjack Star Blackjack hits soft 17, Blackjack Challenge, NSW carded play Pontoon 0.42% Crown Sydney blackjack Traditional vs Crown Blackjack, partial doubles, no pokies A$20 legal minimum Crown Perth blackjack Soft 17 set by table layout, dealer blackjack takes all, resplit aces Pontoon 0.38% The Star Brisbane and Gold Coast Star Blackjack hits soft 17, 2026 ownership change About 0.8% SkyCity Adelaide blackjack Freebet and 6:5 Party Blackjack, SA's only casino Pontoon 0.64%
Game and tool guides What it covers Key number Blackjack Plus Dealer 22 pushes, instant pays on 21 and five cards 6.36% house edge Pontoon vs blackjack 48-card decks, player 21 always wins, house edge by city 0.34% to 0.64% Side bets in Australia Crown Pairs, Buster Blackjack, Any Pair, insurance 1.9% to 22% Minimum bets in Australia What players report at Crown and The Star, electronic tables Checked Sept 2026 Card counting in Australia What is legal, counting devices, bet limits and bans NSW s87(2) House edge calculator Enter your table's rules and see the cost per hour A$ per hour
Frequently asked questions
What upcard is the dealer most likely to bust with?
A 6, closely followed by a 5. With no hole card the dealer busts about 42% of the time showing a 6 when standing on soft 17, and about 44% when hitting soft 17.
What are the odds of getting blackjack?
About 4.75% with 6 or 8 decks, or roughly once every 21 hands.
What is the chance of busting on 12?
About 31%. Only a 10-value card busts you, and 4 of the 13 ranks are worth 10.
How often does the dealer bust in blackjack?
About 28% of the time in a no hole card game, slightly more when the dealer hits soft 17.
How likely is a dealer blackjack when an ace is showing?
About 31%, because roughly 4 cards in 13 are worth 10.
See the odds for yourself
Numbers stick better after you have watched them play out. Try a few hundred hands in our free blackjack game, practice points only.